The Islamic Republic may endure protests for now, but treating it as a permanent fixture of the regional order ignores mounting evidence of irreversible decline.
As you rightly said, younger population has no emotional investment in revolutionary mythology or following theocratic strongmen in general. We are going to see this more and more across the world, and change is evident. The fights people need to fight are no longer those of religious ideologies but for the future. The quicker we get over the old way and start focusing on policy related to climate, AI, the more chance we give to ourselves for a better unified future.
Most of the civilized world would love to see the fall of the Iranian regime But truthfully, clerical power was always fragile, and I detailed the reasons why my opinion article:
This piece gets a few things right but is mostly full of gaslighting and nonsense. Iran’s leaders are the only ones in the region willing to challenge apartheid Israel and the western imposed neocolonial security architecture that has governed it for decades. Aside from a few exceptions, the Arab states are all ruled by thieving cowards who are too weak and servile to actually try and free their nations from the vice grip Western powers have had over them for centuries.Also, painting Iran as an aggressor is fundamentally inaccurate.
"The protests erupting inside Iran today are real, courageous, and rooted in long-standing social and economic frustration" ...this is true.
And so is "The danger is that, absent serious preparation, the regime will decay into something more erratic, violent, and externally disruptive before it falls."
But just as the authentic protests & resistance to the regime of millions of Iranians can be(and is being)manipulated to serve the interests of 'outside forces,' so there can be "serious preparations" being made... for the regime to 'decay into something ...before it falls."
The joint planning being done by Israel and Trump's military henchmen, to manufacture a weakened, still threatening - even if only rhetorically - Shi'ite state, serves the purposes of both, even if the purposes are different.
No one has profited more from the existence of the "Revolutionary Islamic Republic" and it's string of proxies than Israel. Every incremental increase in the pace and quantity of freebee weaponry received from it's dogsbody in the west has been the result of that existence, for over four decades now. And if they're planning to wind that down some time not too long off, it will be because they've either found a newer, richer host or because they've swept the board clean of rivals.
For Trump, the opportunity of a much-weakened but still bellicose IRR is to receive a reprieve from the obvious outcome of the mid-terms. Unless he finds a reason/excuse to cancel or postpone them, he knows he's going to be impeached. Without happy ending this time.
So a war with just enough bang bang to give him 'emergency powers' of the type he was amazed to learn Zelensky had been granted by circumstance.... but without need for actual boots on ground messy intervention ... is just the ticket. The planners are working out the details right now. My guess is north east Syria will get the nod... with overlap into adjoining "Kurdistan" part of northern Iraq. His requested increase in the military budget is the tell. He's not going to facing off against his pal Putin ... he needs a quieter war with lot's of bluster and media b.s. A rump IRR with a few part of the bird carved off maybe... that's where he'll find it.
Your analysis gets many things right but Iran is not an Arab country. Iranians are Persian, they speak Farsi not Arabic and they have an ancient culture that predates the Arabs.
Iran historically has had good relations with Israel, only the Islamic republic calls for the destruction of Israel.
I have high hopes for the future of Iran, calls for the return of the Shah (Crown Prince Pahlavi) cross ethnic lines including Kurds, Iranian Arabs, Persians, Azeris and Turks.
Pahlavi has been wise enough to say that he will return to facilitate free and fair elections.
A free Iran would massively benefit the Middle East whilst damaging Axis powers such as Russia and China.
This is incorrect to use the work of other's and just say that this is your job. For me personally, this is a low level for a person who respect herself. (This is taken from Emmanuel Todd.)
Super interesting, especially on Syria as the turning point for Arab public opinion. I also agree with the idea that legitimacy is eroding on multiple fronts: the younger population, economy, and an antagonistic region. That said, I’m cautious about predicting collapse too confidently. The Islamic Republic has shown an extreme capacity for adaptation and coercive survival. The more urgent takeaway might be preparing for a messy decline rather than expecting a clean fall.
Interesting piece, but we need to separate wishful narrative from structural reality. Yes, the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy has cratered and protests are unlike anything in years, yet every revolution in history has looked inevitable right up until it wasn’t. What matters more is whether the state’s coercive backbone fractures, not whether an essay argues it’s “on the way out.”
As you rightly said, younger population has no emotional investment in revolutionary mythology or following theocratic strongmen in general. We are going to see this more and more across the world, and change is evident. The fights people need to fight are no longer those of religious ideologies but for the future. The quicker we get over the old way and start focusing on policy related to climate, AI, the more chance we give to ourselves for a better unified future.
“The fights people need to fight are no longer those of religious ideologies” So true, I wish people actually realised it
thank you for support! My piece below
https://sergemil.substack.com/p/a-turning-point-for-iran-and-the?r=3znpi3&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay
Yikes
Most of the civilized world would love to see the fall of the Iranian regime But truthfully, clerical power was always fragile, and I detailed the reasons why my opinion article:
https://substack.com/@blackconservatismtoday/note/p-184487550?r=2sshtz&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
This is an older piece but address some of the biases and illogical arguments in this piece:
https://open.substack.com/pub/mirrorsfortheprince/p/fear-of-irans-nuclear-program-is?r=v623r&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay
This piece gets a few things right but is mostly full of gaslighting and nonsense. Iran’s leaders are the only ones in the region willing to challenge apartheid Israel and the western imposed neocolonial security architecture that has governed it for decades. Aside from a few exceptions, the Arab states are all ruled by thieving cowards who are too weak and servile to actually try and free their nations from the vice grip Western powers have had over them for centuries.Also, painting Iran as an aggressor is fundamentally inaccurate.
"The protests erupting inside Iran today are real, courageous, and rooted in long-standing social and economic frustration" ...this is true.
And so is "The danger is that, absent serious preparation, the regime will decay into something more erratic, violent, and externally disruptive before it falls."
But just as the authentic protests & resistance to the regime of millions of Iranians can be(and is being)manipulated to serve the interests of 'outside forces,' so there can be "serious preparations" being made... for the regime to 'decay into something ...before it falls."
The joint planning being done by Israel and Trump's military henchmen, to manufacture a weakened, still threatening - even if only rhetorically - Shi'ite state, serves the purposes of both, even if the purposes are different.
No one has profited more from the existence of the "Revolutionary Islamic Republic" and it's string of proxies than Israel. Every incremental increase in the pace and quantity of freebee weaponry received from it's dogsbody in the west has been the result of that existence, for over four decades now. And if they're planning to wind that down some time not too long off, it will be because they've either found a newer, richer host or because they've swept the board clean of rivals.
For Trump, the opportunity of a much-weakened but still bellicose IRR is to receive a reprieve from the obvious outcome of the mid-terms. Unless he finds a reason/excuse to cancel or postpone them, he knows he's going to be impeached. Without happy ending this time.
So a war with just enough bang bang to give him 'emergency powers' of the type he was amazed to learn Zelensky had been granted by circumstance.... but without need for actual boots on ground messy intervention ... is just the ticket. The planners are working out the details right now. My guess is north east Syria will get the nod... with overlap into adjoining "Kurdistan" part of northern Iraq. His requested increase in the military budget is the tell. He's not going to facing off against his pal Putin ... he needs a quieter war with lot's of bluster and media b.s. A rump IRR with a few part of the bird carved off maybe... that's where he'll find it.
Your analysis gets many things right but Iran is not an Arab country. Iranians are Persian, they speak Farsi not Arabic and they have an ancient culture that predates the Arabs.
Iran historically has had good relations with Israel, only the Islamic republic calls for the destruction of Israel.
I have high hopes for the future of Iran, calls for the return of the Shah (Crown Prince Pahlavi) cross ethnic lines including Kurds, Iranian Arabs, Persians, Azeris and Turks.
Pahlavi has been wise enough to say that he will return to facilitate free and fair elections.
A free Iran would massively benefit the Middle East whilst damaging Axis powers such as Russia and China.
From your lips to God’s ears.
This is incorrect to use the work of other's and just say that this is your job. For me personally, this is a low level for a person who respect herself. (This is taken from Emmanuel Todd.)
Never heard of this author or his articles but I am glad I am not the only one with these views.
You are taking analysis from other person's and you are changing just the terms. This is not yours.
The sooner the better for the Iranian population, the Middle East and the rest of the World.
Blocked for repeating the dumb official cia_narrative
Super interesting, especially on Syria as the turning point for Arab public opinion. I also agree with the idea that legitimacy is eroding on multiple fronts: the younger population, economy, and an antagonistic region. That said, I’m cautious about predicting collapse too confidently. The Islamic Republic has shown an extreme capacity for adaptation and coercive survival. The more urgent takeaway might be preparing for a messy decline rather than expecting a clean fall.
Interesting piece, but we need to separate wishful narrative from structural reality. Yes, the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy has cratered and protests are unlike anything in years, yet every revolution in history has looked inevitable right up until it wasn’t. What matters more is whether the state’s coercive backbone fractures, not whether an essay argues it’s “on the way out.”
NOT
Don't you think that China will agressively support the scarse oil producing countries free from US management, after their cut of Venezuela??