When Gulf Allies Fall Out

A public dispute over Yemen has exposed deepening rifts between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, raising questions about Gulf cohesion and regional stability at a moment of widespread turmoil.

The new year opened with a question mark over Gulf stability as tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE erupted into an open dispute over Yemen with the potential to reshape the regional order. Even if the two Gulf powers reconcile, the damage from their public feud will undermine trust and affect countries that rely on them, commentators say.

“This will be an ugly crisis and, even worse, it will be a very long one,” Farea Al-Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa programme, said.

“These are two powerful and rich countries in the region that everyone owes lots of favors, so it will not be good for those who depend on some sort of normalcy between them.”

Weeks of simmering tensions came to a head on December 30 when Saudi Arabia bombed what it described as an arms shipment from the Emirates bound for separatists in Yemen.

The strike followed a major offensive by the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which made huge territorial gains in oil-rich eastern Yemen, near the Saudi border. For a while, the STC’s goal of southern independence appeared within reach before Saudi Arabia responded with strikes on STC positions in late December.

In a rare public reprimand, the Saudi foreign ministry accused the UAE of “highly dangerous” behavior that, in effect, jeopardized the kingdom’s national security.

Abu Dhabi responded with a statement expressing “surprise” at the strikes and said there were “fundamental inaccuracies” in Saudi claims, but withdrew its military personnel from Yemen.

A complex history of rivalries and rapprochements underpins the UAE-Saudi relationship.

Since the 2011 Arab Spring, the two have cooperated closely over key issues, including opposing Iranian expansion, Islamist movements, and the instability created by the uprisings. But diverging foreign policies and mounting economic competition are unravelling a long-standing alliance between the Gulf powerhouses, long seen as a source of stability in the Middle East.

With new protests calling for regime change in Iran, repeated violations of the ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon, continued conflict in Yemen, and a tenuous security situation in Syria, a dispute between two influential actors threatens further upheaval in countries impacted by war. “It’s not good for many people in the region, but it’s really, really bad for Yemen,” Al-Muslimi added.

The feud flared on social media as a bitter war of words between Saudi and UAE-aligned commentators highlighted growing division between the two countries.

Speaking live on Al Jazeera, Saudi analyst Abdulaziz Alghashian warned, “There is clearly no doubt now that the situation is entering into a stage where things may not go back to normal.”

However, Emirati political scientist Abdulla Abdulkhaleq described it as a “classic case of allies’ clash” and emphasized the long history of cooperation between the two states. “This rift between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, as deep as it looks now, will be over maybe sooner than many expect,” he said.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE were initially partners in a campaign to oust the Houthis after the Iran-backed group seized control of the Yemeni capital in 2014. Following a disastrous military intervention led by the Saudis, the two governments have increasingly taken different paths in the conflict, with Riyadh backing government forces in the north that call for a unified Yemen.

Commentators have voiced fears that the dispute could create a new war in southern Yemen or spill into Sudan and Somalia, where the two states back opposing sides in other conflicts.

“The STC advances in southeastern Yemen crossed all manner of Saudi red lines and meant it was no longer possible to ignore the allegations of Emirati support for armed separatists, which in the Yemeni case, are seen as a direct threat to the Saudi vision for regional order,” said Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Gulf expert and fellow at the Baker Institute.

“It is likely that Saudi attention will be focused on the fluid situation in southern Yemen, and any attempt by the Houthis to take advantage of the turmoil may reignite the conflict in central and northern Yemen,” he told Middle East Uncovered.

Yemen is one of several theatres where relations between the two Gulf powerbrokers have soured in recent years. In Sudan, Saudi Arabia accuses the UAE of supplying weapons to the RSF paramilitary group, an allegation the Emirates has repeatedly denied.

The kingdom’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) raised Sudan on a trip to Washington, confirming media reports that he planned to lobby US President Donald Trump about alleged UAE support for the RSF, which is fighting against the internationally recognized government backed by Saudi Arabia.

A fortnight after this meeting, the STC began its advance in Yemen.

The two countries are also on opposing sides in Syria and Libya, fuelling concerns that a proxy conflict between the regional heavyweights could be a matter of time.

In recent years, the UAE has sought to expand its geopolitical reach by building networks of non-state actors across the Middle East and Africa. For Riyadh, this runs counter to the broader aims of creating a secure environment that will bolster economic activity in the region

“The Saudi preference is for ‘de-risking’ – that is, making the region appear safe and stable for would-be outside investors. This aligns with Saudi’s resolute focus on economic development and the delivery of Vision 2030. But it clashes directly with the perceived Emirati tolerance for risk-taking in regional affairs,” Ulrichsen wrote.

Signs of the spat also emerged over an OPEC+ oil cap in 2021 and again in December 2022, when Emirati President Mohammed bin Zayed was notably absent from the China-Arab summit in Riyadh and the Arab Summit in Jeddah, chaired by Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz in May 2023.

These public examples followed years of creeping estrangement amid mounting economic rivalry as the two countries race to diversify their economies away from oil.

Abu Dhabi led the way with its Vision 2030, outlining ambitious goals to build a knowledge-based economy that would move the emirate beyond its dependence on hydrocarbons and make it a regional hub for business, commerce, and tourism.

In recent years, the kingdom has steadily asserted its own economic vision, competing with Abu Dhabi and Dubai to become the region’s financial center.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s traditional dominance in the Gulf has increasingly been challenged as smaller states like Qatar and the UAE leverage their wealth to gain strategic influence.

A fault line has emerged between the conservative Saudi-led order and what Dr. Andreas Krieg describes as the UAE’s “network-centric statecraft” based on establishing spheres of influence across the Middle East and Africa. “Their vision is now clashing with the Saudis, who also wanted to be indispensable in this part of the world,” said Krieg, a senior lecturer at King’s College London.

Despite this growing estrangement, Ulrichsen believes that ties between Saudis and Emiratis are unlikely to break down as they did with Qatar in 2017, when the Arab League severed ties with Doha. “The UAE has, for now, decided that a rollback in Yemen is preferable to an outright rupture in bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia,” he said.

But few believe there is an easy way back to the fraternal relations Riyadh and Abu Dhabi once enjoyed. While war seems unlikely given the enormous economic and political costs to countries that have spent years curating their development, there is a risk that the feud could spiral out of control.

“These situations often have their own momentum,” said James Ker-Lindsay, a specialist in international relations and conflict resolution at the London School of Economics. Discussing the potential for war between the two states, he warned that “the differences over Yemen have destroyed the previous spirit of cooperation and coordination” between the old allies, making compromise increasingly difficult.

Rather than open conflict, he anticipates “a sustained strategic rivalry marked by occasional crises, uneasy coexistence, and efforts to de-escalate the situation when things become too heated.”

But in a region characterized by volatile relationships and unpredictable events, opportunities to rebuild trust and restore fractured relations may be fleeting. Given that much of Middle Eastern politics is conducted behind the scenes, it can be difficult to capitalize on opportunities for diplomacy. “We don’t know what’s happening behind doors between princes and sheikhs,” Al Muslimi said.

“Even if they meet and kiss in a corridor, because that’s usually how these conflicts end, I think the public damage it has done will take a long time to heal.”

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