Tribal Loyalties Are Burning Afghanistan and Pakistan Alike

As Pakistan bombs Afghan cities in pursuit of militants, old grievances have resurfaced. The colonial border that divided the Pashtuns continues to fuel instability on both sides.

On the evening of October 9, Ahmad was about to lock up his office and head home. He was on a call with the Middle East Uncovered team, discussing a potential story, when several loud explosions shook the ground beneath him. Startled, he paused to observe, unsure of where the blasts had come from. Hours later, Ahmad learned that what he heard were airstrikes conducted by the Pakistani Air Force deep within Kabul. The target was Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leader Noor Wali Mahsood, who was traveling in an armored land cruiser. He is believed to have survived the attack.

Since that first strike on October 9, many more have followed. The Taliban condemned the airstrikes as a direct violation of Afghanistan’s sovereignty, accusing their neighbor of aggression, while Pakistan maintains that the Afghan Taliban continue to harbor TTP militants. Pakistan designates the TTP as a terrorist organization. In the days that followed, the Afghan Taliban launched raids on Pakistani border outposts and checkpoints, killing and wounding an unknown number of soldiers. Pakistan retaliated by bombing several Afghan provinces, including Kunar, Paktia, Kandahar, and even Kabul. At least 37 Afghan civilians were killed and 435 injured, among them three Afghan cricketers.

To understand why Pakistan would breach Afghanistan’s sovereignty for the first time in its history, we must look to the border between the two countries. A relic of British colonialism, the Durand Line remains a disputed frontier. Afghanistan does not formally recognize the boundary, arguing that the 1893 treaty under which it was drawn was signed under duress by King Amir Abdur Rahman Khan. Stretching 2,640 kilometers, the line was meant to divide spheres of influence between Afghanistan and British India, turning Afghanistan into a buffer state between the British and Russian empires. When the British departed and Pakistan gained independence, Islamabad accepted the Durand Line as its inherited border.

Map marking the Durand Line border in red

For the people living in the region, however, the story was different. The Durand Line split Pashtun communities across southeastern Afghanistan and western Pakistan, dividing families and tribes. Today, an estimated 30–35 million Pashtuns live in Pakistan, where they are a minority, while Pashtuns make up roughly 35–40% of Afghanistan’s population.

Because of these ethnic and tribal bonds, Afghanistan’s rulers have never recognized the Durand Line. Many on both sides of the border view the Pashtun tribal areas as an extension of Afghanistan. This shared heritage has fueled the alliance between the Afghan Taliban and the TTP—literally, the “Pakistani Taliban.” Like their Afghan counterparts, the TTP is largely Pashtun and seeks to overthrow Pakistan’s government, as the Taliban did in Afghanistan.

Ali Maisam Nazary, spokesperson for the National Resistance Front (NRF), told Middle East Uncovered that “the Taliban are harboring the TTP and their leadership because they share the same vision and ideology.” He added that “the TTP provided support and fighters to the Afghan Taliban until 2021, promising to help overthrow Afghanistan’s legitimate government. In return, the Taliban agreed to aid the TTP in their goal of taking over Pakistan.”

Beneath these political dynamics lies a deeply ethnic and tribal mindset. The Taliban, like much of the Pashtun community, continues to see Pakistani Pashtuns as their kin. But those across the border now identify as Pakistanis—united under their own flag, language, and national identity. Afghanistan, meanwhile, must confront its own reality: its 40 million citizens need a government that serves them, not one beholden to outdated tribal loyalties. The Hazara mother in Bamyan who proudly calls herself Afghan and works to better her country matters more than the Pakistani Pashtun who feels little connection to Afghanistan. The Taliban must recognize that Afghanistan’s diverse ethnic groups cannot be held hostage to a narrow tribal agenda. Accepting the Durand Line and focusing on Afghanistan’s internal strength would be a step toward national unity and progress.

If sacrificing 95% of the population for the Taliban’s tribal ambitions sounds disastrous, Pakistan’s response risks making things even worse. Afghanistan relies heavily on imports from Pakistan, but the major border crossings have been closed since the conflict began. Although Qatar and Turkey brokered a ceasefire in Doha on October 19, trade remains at a standstill. Meanwhile, Pakistan has resumed and expanded deportations of undocumented Afghans—part of a crackdown launched in 2023. According to the Associated Press, more than a million people, and possibly several million more, are affected. The policy continues amid the current crisis, further straining Afghanistan’s fragile economy and governance.

While the situation appears calm for now, the ceasefire is fragile. The TTP leader’s survival could fuel further violence and anti-Pakistan sentiment. With borders sealed, the prices of goods in Afghanistan have soared, and those needing medical care are left stranded without access to Pakistani hospitals. The Pakistani airstrikes serve as a grim reminder that the Taliban cannot protect Afghanistan’s citizens—indeed, their actions have placed them in greater danger.

The Afghan people must recognize that the Taliban cannot govern effectively. Sharia law cannot defend the skies, but rockets and missiles can. The golden hour has passed—people are exhausted, and women, in particular, can no longer bear the burden of the Taliban’s radical agenda. Recent attacks have exposed the regime’s vulnerability. Armed opposition groups are taking note—and preparing for what may come next.

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