The Shifting Global Order and its Implications for the Middle East

The debate over the liberal world order has become a clash of moral absolutes—one that obscures the messy, contested history that produced the norms we now defend.

Editorial Note: This essay is the first in a three-part series on the fragility of the current global order and its implications for the Middle East.

We now find ourselves caught between moral absolutism and historical amnesia. As the world is once again debating the foundations of global order, some lament the erosion of liberal norms; others mock them as hypocritical inventions of the West. In this polarized climate, basic historical truths are buried beneath moral absolutism and ideological distortion. In what follows, I aim to offer a more nuanced perspective by revisiting how the modern international system emerged, why its norms remain tenuous, and what challenges confront them today. Some of this ground may feel familiar, but we retrace it in order to properly frame the analysis that follows in the second and third installments of this series.

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The Long Shadow of Empire

For most of human history, expansion was the norm. From the Sumerians to the Romans, the Ottomans to European colonial powers, empires rose and fell—annexing territories, exploiting resources, and subjugating peoples. Conquest conferred legitimacy and glory, not moral shame. Grand narratives abounded: Islam’s promise to lift nations “from the darkness of religion to the justice of Islam,” or the European “civilizing mission” cloaked in the white man’s burden. But beneath these exalted slogans lay the raw pursuit of power.

Paradoxically, this violent story of empire enabled human survival. Had our ancestors not jostled out of Africa, dispersing and competing globally, a single pandemic might have eradicated the species. Likewise, technological diffusion—however brutal—was often a byproduct of conquest and war.

The principles we now take for granted—sovereignty, self-determination, human rights—are not timeless truths. They are recent human inventions, born of struggle, debate, and compromise. And they emerged largely through the philosophical, legal, and political traditions of the very Western powers so often demonized today. While their imperial crimes warrant scrutiny and critique, their intellectual contributions to global norms cannot be denied.

But this legacy should inspire responsibility, not supremacist nostalgia. Universal values are not expressions of civilizational destiny. They are fragile and contingent ideals that demand constant stewardship.

The Early Experiments of War and Innovation

These ideals didn’t emerge fully formed. Their first modern iteration, after World War I, was deeply flawed. U.S. President Woodrow Wilson’s Fourteen Points called for self-determination, open diplomacy, arms reduction, and collective security via a new League of Nations. But in practice, the League sanctioned a mandate system that allowed Britain and France to expand their imperial possessions under the guise of trusteeship.

Arab hopes for independence were quickly betrayed. The Balfour Declaration, the Sykes-Picot Agreement, and conflicting promises to the Hashemites stoked tensions that still reverberate. Yet to condemn these actions by today’s moral standards, however tempting, is historically naïve. The principle of national self-determination was embryonic; few statesmen viewed it as sacrosanct.

A more profound shift came only after World War II. The United Nations, created to replace the League, embedded human dignity and sovereign equality into its Charter. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights followed in 1948. Though the Charter avoided explicit references to democracy, its ethos—cooperation, dignity, and rights—marked a normative leap forward.

Still, the liberal order was never universal. The Cold War split the world into ideological camps.

Decolonization gave rise to fragile states, vulnerable to coups, insurgencies, and foreign manipulation. Not all regions experienced decolonization after World War II: the Soviet Union maintained and expanded its imperial holdings, while China embarked on its own colonizing ventures in Tibet, Xinjiang (East Turkistan), and Inner Mongolia. Even after 1991, with the apparent triumph of the liberal order, the seeds of today’s crises had already been sown.

The New Anarchy

By the 21st century, the liberal order faced mounting challenges—external and internal. Its core ideals are now under siege on multiple fronts:

• Authoritarian Resurgence: China and Russia reject liberal values, promoting stability and sovereignty over liberty and pluralism. Their assertiveness undermines multilateralism and empowers autocrats elsewhere. This is not just rhetorical: Russia has intervened militarily in Ukraine and Syria and operates through proxies and mercenaries across Sub-Saharan Africa. China, meanwhile, asserts imperial claims in the South China Sea, exerts growing influence across the Global South through infrastructure and debt diplomacy, has tightened authoritarian control over Hong Kong, and openly threatens democratic Taiwan. Together, they offer alternative models of order that normalize authoritarianism and transactional geopolitics.

• Democracy Backsliding: Even in established democracies, liberal values are under strain. Polarization fueled by identity politics, unchecked economic inequality, disinformation, and migration crises has eroded public trust in democratic institutions. Illiberal movements are gaining ground in Europe and the United States, often aided by external actors exploiting domestic divisions. The moral authority of democratic systems is thus weakening from within, making it harder to defend the liberal order abroad.

• Global Economic Inequality: Globalization lifted millions out of poverty—but also entrenched oligarchies and fueled populist rage.

• Climate Change: A planetary emergency demands collective action, yet national interests and institutional gridlock prevail.

• Cyber Insecurity & Disinformation: Digital interdependence creates new vulnerabilities—from election meddling to infrastructure sabotage.

• Geopolitical Fragmentation: U.S.-China rivalry, regional conflicts, and transactional diplomacy erode the cooperative spirit underpinning the liberal order.

• Pandemics & Migration: COVID-19 exposed global governance gaps; mass displacement strains both humanitarian norms and political institutions.

• Technological Disruption: AI, biotechnology, and automation outpace ethical and regulatory frameworks, raising profound dilemmas.

Overlaying all of this is a growing legitimacy crisis. Many now see the liberal order not as a universal project, but as a Western scheme serving Western interests. This perception, sharpened by historical grievances, undermines the moral credibility required to sustain global cooperation.

The Sovereignty Dilemma

A paradox lies at the heart of today’s turbulence: sovereignty is sacred and porous. States invoke it to shield themselves from interference, even as they outsource governance to supranational institutions or succumb to market dependencies. Humanitarian interventions, cyber operations, and economic sanctions further blur the boundaries between the domestic and the global.

Can sovereignty—as once imagined—survive in an era of climate breakdown, global pandemics, transnational terrorism, and digital warfare? Or must it evolve—preserved in principle but adapted to interdependence?

Why Historical Honesty Matters

Defending norms requires historical honesty. The global order we live under was not delivered from on high. It was forged, however imperfectly, within the political cultures of Western democracies, where the past is still debated openly, unlike in most autocracies. Even mature democracies like Japan and South Korea struggle with full reckoning. To ignore this asymmetry is to misread how norms are created and sustained.

Likewise, to romanticize the West’s role is folly. Its success was not foreordained, but rather the product of a messy convergence between Enlightenment ideals and imperial ambition—of moral progress entangled with material exploitation. That duality, still present today, should neither excuse nor erase—but help explain.

Between Arrogance and Amnesia

The liberal order’s survival hinges on humility and clarity. Humility requires recognition that its norms are not eternal or self-sustaining, and clarity requires resisting the creeping nihilism that treats all ideals as instruments of power.

Both extremes—nostalgic supremacism and cynical relativism—are recipes for disorder. The global norms we now invoke were won through centuries of struggle, revision, and compromise. They can neither be taken for granted nor weaponized indiscriminately. To forget this is to forget that history’s most brutal lesson is repetition.

Up Next: II. Between Victimhood and Supremacy

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