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Mary Shaw's avatar

such a beautiful and moving assessment of where we are, and so instructive for all of us who have lived this history further removed from its tragedies than you. thank you for this and all the fantastic work that you do!

Michelle Styles's avatar

A really interesting read. Thank you.

I am wondering what Middle East Uncovered makes of Simon Sebag Montefiore's THE CAULDRON. It has been published in the UK and will be published in the US on 29 Sept. I personally am finding it a highly readable overarching account which doesn't hesitate to point out the various missteps all the players have made.

Les Vitailles's avatar

"devastation in Gaza and the political fallout from Israel’s response have dealt a serious blow to the prospect of reconciliation"

Wrong: October 7 dealt a blow to the prospect of reconciliation.

Israel's response dealt a blow to the idea that any group can organize the large scale murder of Israeli citizens without consequences. Summarized eloquently by Lebanese President Joseph Aoun: "Lebanon must disarm Hezbollah to avoid becoming another Gaza".

Reconciliation is for people you want to be friends with.

As a Latin American born and raised, it's easy to recognize the necessity of very severe measures in dealing with terrorist groups. Today's peaceful and prospering Latin America shows the wisdom of the course taken in the 1970s and 1980s.

Drhmay's avatar

Interesting, a full of hope but short on reality think piece.

There cannot be reconciliation with Palestinians until they abandon their primary goal of destroying Israel.

Never, ever.

As Golda said "you cannot negotiate peace with someone who comes to kill you."

Damascus Steel's avatar

This is a vacuous and incomplete analysis which ignores the fundamental causes and effects of U.S. foreign policy - perhaps by design. First and foremost is the unwarranted influence of Israel and its supporters over American foreign and domestic policy. It has been documented by politicians from Harry Truman to William J. Fulbright to Jimmy Carter to Thomas Massie. It is an open secret. Trump not only acknowledges it but publicly and proudly caters to it. Wars in Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Lebanon, Syria and now Iran trace directly back to this source. Secondly, the author ignores the logical consequence of threats against other nations' sovereignty. Resistance is not terrorism. America does not hold a corner on patriotism. When people are attacked they respond. It is literally a rule of physics. Thirdly, no serious analyst would cling to the canard that America is in a war against terrorism. Operation Timber Sycamore and others have been fueled through the use of terrorists and terrorism by the CIA, USDOS and USDOD. When POTUS is applying perfume and platitudes to the man who months earlier was listed as the world's most wanted terrorist by his USDOS with a $10m bounty attached to his mugshot, the argument that we are fighting terrorism is an empty ad line.

The Meandering Canaanite's avatar

I think western society in general just became immensely more immature. Western governments are so obviously more interested in "selling" a story than actually getting things done, especially if that thing requires painful measures. This is not what you'd see in Israeli newspapers, by the way. The utter lack of strategic vision was called out by mainstream Israelies since very early in the war. The problem is, the type of Israelis who think like that isn't calling the shots right now, which might change in... hmm, a bit more than a month's time, actually.

Drhmay's avatar

Wrong.

Nothing will change in the minds of most Israelis or the military.

Security is job one.

Tolerance of extremism is a thing of the past. October 7 settled it.

No matter who is PM.

The Meandering Canaanite's avatar

I'm confused by your comment and about how it relates to what I said.

Anonymous's avatar

Interesting essay! I believe you should also add what's going on in Syria today as a foil to what's going on in Afghanistan. A former ISIS allies warlord is somehow successfully governing with us tacit blessing a state that allows young women to put unmasked selfies on Instagram. The gulf states oil shiekhs too seem to have largely pacified their most extremist populaces; we don't see that many would be revolutionaries when everyone eats more protein and drives better cars. A peaceful civil society in Middle East will eventually be possible.