Recognizing the Taliban Won’t Make Them Legitimate

Russia’s embrace of the Taliban signals desperation, not strategy—and the Afghan people will pay the price

Russia has become the latest major power to formally recognize the Taliban.

Last week, Moscow accepted diplomatic credentials from the Taliban’s newly appointed ambassador and downplayed it as merely symbolic. Yet symbolism, in geopolitics, carries weight. Coming on the heels of another round of G7 sanctions against the Kremlin for its aggression in Ukraine, the gesture suggests Russia is searching for alternative alliances in a shifting global order. But cozying up to the Taliban—an internationally sanctioned and widely reviled regime—may prove more liability than leverage.

Regardless of Moscow’s framing, recognition of the Taliban carries devastating implications, particularly for Afghan women, dissidents, and the vast majority of Afghans who live in poverty. The Taliban’s return to power has crushed civil society, criminalized dissent, and resurrected theocratic rule. Victims of forced marriage, political prisoners, and communities living under the constant threat of arbitrary detention are now saddled with the burden of international normalization of their oppressors.

Moscow’s overture has been condemned worldwide. Yet Russia insists it is merely respecting Afghan sovereignty, in contrast to what it views as American interventionism. That claim ignores the deeper moral and strategic reality that legitimizing a regime with a decades-long record of mass violence and ideological extremism does not advance stability, but it entrenches brutality. And for a nation that has devastated its neighbor through war, Russia has little moral capital to spend.

The Kremlin’s calculus likely stems from its desire to secure its southern borders and reduce the risk of Islamist spillover into Central Asia. But if Russia believes the Taliban’s promises of stability, it is gambling against history. The Taliban has repeatedly failed to uphold its commitments, from counterterrorism cooperation to safeguarding basic rights. Moscow should know better than to take their assurances at face value.

The question is: can this moment be leveraged for something constructive?

Afghans are exhausted. The United States, constrained by war fatigue and limited strategic interest, is unlikely to re-engage meaningfully in the near term. But stagnation serves no one—not the Taliban, not Russia, and certainly not the Afghan people. The regime in Kabul has a rare opportunity to pivot inward: to invest in infrastructure, education, and inclusive governance. Yet that would require abandoning the very ideology that brought them to power.

Despite superficial changes, the Taliban remains an authoritarian, religiously extremist, and ethnically narrow movement. Their promises of moderation ring hollow. Entrusting Afghanistan’s future to such a regime is akin to handing a scalpel to a butcher. Neither Russia nor the Taliban possesses the technical or institutional capacity to build a modern economy, let alone one responsive to Afghanistan’s demographic realities.

Two-thirds of the population is under 25, yet the nation produces few engineers, doctors, or scientists, and those who do emerge often flee abroad. Afghanistan may sit atop trillions in untapped mineral wealth, but lacking infrastructure, stability, and transparency, it remains out of reach. Meanwhile, its agriculture and light industry barely sustain its own people, let alone attract meaningful foreign investment.

But hope persists. Among the diaspora and exiled intellectuals, a renaissance is unfolding. Take 17-year-old Nila Ibrahimi, an Afghan refugee in Canada who recently won the International Children's Peace Prize for her advocacy work on behalf of Afghan girls. Her advocacy and success serve as an example of what Afghans can achieve when given the chance. The question is: why can't those same opportunities exist within Afghanistan itself?

The answer lies in freedom—something the Taliban repress with zeal. For Afghanistan to rise, the regime must recognize that no one group holds a monopoly on identity or sovereignty. Afghans of every background deserve a government that reflects their diversity, not suppresses it. Had the Taliban used the aftermath of August 2021 to forge a national consensus instead of imposing ideological rule, they might have secured enduring legitimacy and a thriving economy. Instead, they squandered it, barring women from working and thus eliminating nearly half of the nation’s workforce.

As the Taliban again reveals its true nature, more Afghans—at home and abroad—are awakening to the need for a new kind of resistance. Not just armed or political, but intellectual. A resistance that doesn’t merely call for reform but articulates a philosophical vision for the country’s future. One grounded in logic, indigenous culture, and ethical principles, not dogma.

This intellectual opposition must navigate a delicate terrain: how to integrate Islamic tradition and Afghan cultural codes with human rights and democratic values, without alienating conservative constituencies or inviting accusations of foreign subversion. This is no small task, but it is the defining challenge of the next Afghan century.

Signs of grassroots defiance are already emerging. In the country’s north, where communities are less conservative, underground schools have taken root, and local self-governance flourishes in some areas with minimal Taliban interference. The contrast with the south—where Taliban control is more entrenched—is stark.

Should the regime continue its repressive policies and the economy continue to falter, the risk of civil conflict will grow. Such a war would be catastrophic, not just for Afghanistan but for its neighbors. Neither liberal nor conservative Afghans seek that outcome. Yet unless the Taliban changes course, it may become inevitable.

Afghanistan is not beyond redemption. But it is not salvageable through superficial partnerships or symbolic diplomacy. Russia’s recognition of the Taliban will embolden the regime and complicate efforts for meaningful change, but it will not erase the growing intellectual resistance that seeks to chart a different course.

The West would do well not to abandon this emerging movement. Aid, education, and platforms for dialogue must be extended, not just to empower the few, but to inspire the many. Arming the citizenry with knowledge is the first step toward deposing dangerous regimes. Afghanistan may be a land of endless conflict, but it is also a land of extraordinary potential. The world should not forget that.

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