Only two weeks ago I was thinking the Abrahamic Accords will determine the shape of the Middle East to come. The tribal sectarian events in Syria shifted the centre of gravity completely to the allegiances taking form in Syria. Those allegiances are now more likely to determine not just what happens in Syria but how the Sunni traditionalists, Muslim Brotherhood and even the Shiite camps interact with one another
Israel will remain functionally important but not as influential as it could be
Absolutely agree. The transitional government would be wise to recognize that decentralized or federal arrangements may be the only viable path forward. As you demonstrate here, tribal networks have evolved from temporary allies into permanent political actors with real governance roles—they’re not going to simply dissolve when Damascus tries to reassert central control.
This mirrors what we’re seeing across the region from Libya to Sudan: hybrid governance structures where traditional authorities operate alongside or instead of formal state institutions. Syria’s transitional government can either embrace this reality and design federal arrangements that work with these groups and other groups constructively, or exhaust itself fighting entrenched local power structures.
The genies are indeed out of the bottle—the question is whether Damascus will adapt or keep trying to stuff them back in.
This is anguishing & indeed archaic, the strong and ruthless rule in the Arab world. Islamic aggressive tendencies only makes it worse.
As one on the outside looking in It appears that sort of semi-democratic governance and & long term stability in the Arab / Islamic regions is absolutely hopeless!
Only two weeks ago I was thinking the Abrahamic Accords will determine the shape of the Middle East to come. The tribal sectarian events in Syria shifted the centre of gravity completely to the allegiances taking form in Syria. Those allegiances are now more likely to determine not just what happens in Syria but how the Sunni traditionalists, Muslim Brotherhood and even the Shiite camps interact with one another
Israel will remain functionally important but not as influential as it could be
Absolutely agree. The transitional government would be wise to recognize that decentralized or federal arrangements may be the only viable path forward. As you demonstrate here, tribal networks have evolved from temporary allies into permanent political actors with real governance roles—they’re not going to simply dissolve when Damascus tries to reassert central control.
This mirrors what we’re seeing across the region from Libya to Sudan: hybrid governance structures where traditional authorities operate alongside or instead of formal state institutions. Syria’s transitional government can either embrace this reality and design federal arrangements that work with these groups and other groups constructively, or exhaust itself fighting entrenched local power structures.
The genies are indeed out of the bottle—the question is whether Damascus will adapt or keep trying to stuff them back in.
This is anguishing & indeed archaic, the strong and ruthless rule in the Arab world. Islamic aggressive tendencies only makes it worse.
As one on the outside looking in It appears that sort of semi-democratic governance and & long term stability in the Arab / Islamic regions is absolutely hopeless!