From strategic retreat to regime collapse, the Islamic Republic's volatile trajectory could reshape U.S. policy, Israeli defense strategy, and regional power dynamics
I think the options are sound, but somewhat constrained by the actions of the US. If America destroys Fordow, there goes most or all of the enriched Uranium and a lot of tech and expertise as they are all likely holed up there. That surely changes some probabilities as Iran then has absolutely no bargaining position and no real military power that can be projected elsewhere. They have enough military to prevent invasion, but their time as a current world influencer would be over.
Appreciate this analysis. The mere fact that 5 different scenarios are viable just goes to show how fluid the situation is, and how most observers simply underestimate the complexities within Iran itself, much less the geopolitics involved.
Great article. I believe the regime, for all its bluster, will cut a deal - we're already seeing reports of Iranian government planes landing in Oman, a key intermediary in U.S. - Iranian negotiations. However, the Trump administration is unpredictable by its very nature so nothing is certain for now.
I think the options are sound, but somewhat constrained by the actions of the US. If America destroys Fordow, there goes most or all of the enriched Uranium and a lot of tech and expertise as they are all likely holed up there. That surely changes some probabilities as Iran then has absolutely no bargaining position and no real military power that can be projected elsewhere. They have enough military to prevent invasion, but their time as a current world influencer would be over.
Hugely insightful article - I feel better informed…
Also depends on how hungry, or angry, the majority of Iranian people are.
Appreciate this analysis. The mere fact that 5 different scenarios are viable just goes to show how fluid the situation is, and how most observers simply underestimate the complexities within Iran itself, much less the geopolitics involved.
Great article. I believe the regime, for all its bluster, will cut a deal - we're already seeing reports of Iranian government planes landing in Oman, a key intermediary in U.S. - Iranian negotiations. However, the Trump administration is unpredictable by its very nature so nothing is certain for now.