A Frail Truce Masks Competing Claims to Victory Between the US and Iran
Ongoing strikes in Lebanon threaten to derail the peace process as divergent narratives threaten a return to war.
Soon after a ceasefire was announced between the United States and Iran, both sides began claiming victory.
In Washington, officials were quick to argue that Donald Trump’s brinkmanship forced Tehran to the table. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth pointed in particular to the President’s apocalyptic warning on Tuesday evening that “a whole civilization will die” as the decisive moment behind the agreement.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council also claimed victory, saying the US and Israel were forced to accept Tehran’s 10-point plan. The Trump administration will also discuss tariff and sanctions relief for the regime.
The two-week truce was brokered by Pakistan at the 11th hour, after 40 days of intense US-Israeli strikes on Iran as part of “Operation Epic Fury.” The campaign has prompted Iran to launch unprecedented strikes on neighboring Gulf nations and close the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf waterway through which around 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas shipments pass. Iran’s navy has largely been decimated, but the war has effectively cemented Iran’s strategic domination of the strait.
Cracks have already appeared in the fragile truce. While Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistan’s Prime Minister, and Iran both insist the ceasefire also covered Lebanon, this was disputed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and backed by the Trump administration. On Wednesday, Israel launched its biggest bombing campaign of the war on what it claimed were Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, hitting the capital, Beirut, and leaving nearly 300 dead.
Iran has warned that it could withdraw from the ceasefire if the war against all components of the “axis of resistance,” including Hezbollah, continues. In the past four weeks, Israeli strikes have killed around 1,500 people, displacing more than one million civilians, roughly a fifth of Lebanon’s population.
“It will be interesting to see how much Israel is willing to play along with the negotiations or whether it is going to continue its operation in Lebanon. If it continues, that could potentially derail the truce,” says Jonathan Hackett, a US Marine Corps veteran specializing in counterintelligence and the author of Iran’s Shadow Weapons: Covert Action, Intelligence Operations, and Unconventional Warfare.
This tension will likely be central to upcoming diplomatic discussions, as delegations from Washington and Tehran meet in Islamabad this weekend. Whether the ceasefire holds remains to be seen, but some parties are already emerging as immediate beneficiaries.
“The winner is clearly Israel,” says Hackett. For decades, Benjamin Netanyahu had been trying to persuade America to go to war with Iran, and he has at last found a willing participant in Donald Trump, first in the 12-day war in June 2025, and again this year.
Russia has also been cited as a major victor of rising oil prices following a temporary reprieve on sanctions and a realignment of international relations that could play to the Kremlin’s advantage.
Pakistan has also benefited by adopting the role of mediator in one of the most striking developments of the conflict. Sharing a border with Iran and maintaining close ties with Washington, Islamabad was uniquely positioned to act as an intermediary—despite being mired in a war with Afghanistan.
Domestic dynamics also play a role. Pakistan has a significant Shia minority, estimated at 15-20 percent of the country’s 250 million population. Following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s killing on February 28, angry protesters tried to ransack American consulates in Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad.
President Trump has previously heaped praise on the head of Pakistan’s armed forces, General Asim Munir, referring to the de facto leader of Pakistan as “an exceptional human being” and his “favorite field marshal” who knows Iran “better than most”.
China could prove to be one of the quieter beneficiaries. While not the principal broker of the ceasefire, Beijing helped create the conditions for it, providing political weight and strategic backing. Iran is also China’s partner. Beijing doesn’t need Iran to win, but to survive. An isolated, weak Tehran serves China’s interests. A stronger or Western-aligned Iran would not.
The “losers” are clear. Iran’s Gulf neighbors have borne a heavy toll while seeking to avoid direct confrontation. Even after the ceasefire announcement, several countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Bahrain, reported incoming missiles and drones from Iran on Wednesday.
The war has also exposed the limits of the Gulf’s security bargain with the US, which involves hosting bases and troops in exchange for Washington’s protection. But it was precisely these ties with Washington that made them Iran’s primary target.
“The Gulf countries never had the intention to fight a war or be the aggressors. We built our defense system just for defense, not for aggression,” says Ahmed Khuzaie, a Bahraini political analyst. The region may now reassess whether to remain purely defensive or move towards a more proactive posture, he adds.
For years, countries like the UAE touted themselves as regional safe havens, seeking to attract expats with the lure of low taxes and golden visas. That confidence has now been shaken, further undermined by a sweeping censorship crackdown.
In recent weeks, around 70 British nationals, including tourists, residents, and airline crew, have been detained in the UAE for filming or sharing images of Iranian missile and drone strikes, or even forwarding footage in private messages. These arrests highlight how the conflict has permeated everyday life across the Gulf.
While the status of Iran’s nuclear program and stockpile of enriched uranium remains unresolved, the “biggest loser” in all this is the Iranian people, says Hackett. “Nobody has represented their interests at all; nobody knows what’s going on inside the country.”
Thousands of civilians have been killed or injured, and there is still an internet blackout. Although Ayatollah Khamenei’s bloody reign has ended, the regime he headed survives.
As Washington and Tehran both claim some success, the reality on the ground tells a different story—a region left more unstable, and an Iranian population that has paid the highest price. The aim of the bombing, according to Trump at one point, was regime change, but the Islamic Republic continues under the same authoritarian theocracy that has been in place since the Revolution in 1979.
It’s highly likely that the war has given more power to the hardliners, and this hardened regime will undoubtedly double down on the repression of its own citizens over time.
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